The launch is finally on the calendar: Research In Motion has scheduled events around the world on January 30 to unveil its long-delayed BlackBerry 10 phones, but it will wait until that day to announce exactly when the devices will go on sale.
BlackBerry 10 has been a long time in coming. RIM has been trying to make the transition to a new software platform that would allow it to compete with iPhones and Android devices that have become dominant among mobile workers.
But that transition has been slow. In June, it announced the phones would become available in the first quarter next year instead of this year. That followed an announcement in late 2011 when RIM asked for patience when it said that its choice of chips would push the launch back later than expected.
Now the launch is scheduled for the first quarter but it remains to be seen if the devices will land on store shelves within the quarter.
The delays, during which RIM has made only incremental updates to its current BlackBerry 7 platform, have been crippling for the company.
“What’s in place now has been in place for three years,” said Chris Hazleton, an analyst at 451 Group. “The real driver for enterprise mobility is what employees are bringing in. And they’re not buying BlackBerry devices because there hasn’t been anything new for a long time.”
In fact, a January 2012 report from ChangeWave Research found that just 2 percent of North American smartphone buyers are interested in BlackBerry as their next device.
RIM’s best bet is to sell BlackBerry 10 devices to companies, but even that market isn't looking good. “The only companies really looking at BlackBerry 10 are those that are very much dedicated to RIM and bought into Fusion and the problem is that’s not a very large base,” Hazelton said.
Fusion is RIM’s device management product that supports other platforms including iOS in addition to BlackBerry devices.
While BlackBerry 10 boasts some neat features, even the most security-conscious users have moved on to iPhones and other smartphones that are more appealing to users. When organizations like the U.S. Department of Defense begin considering buying other kinds of smartphones, it’s clear that BlackBerry has lost its edge.
As of the third quarter this year, BlackBerry had sunk to just 4 percent market share,according to IDC, so it has a long way to go to bounce back to its glory days.
There are a couple of slivers of hope for RIM. One is that mobile operators are interested in having a handful of strong contenders in the market, Hazelton said. RIM said recently that 50 carriers around the world are testing BlackBerry 10 for launches on their networks. If carriers push the phones, they may get some traction.
Also, since RIM develops both hardware and software for its platform, it has the opportunity to release a very tightly integrated product -- like Apple does with the iPhone. (Google could move in this direction eventually, but so far has treated its Motorola handset business like any other Android OEM.)
But based on its recent track record, the chances that RIM will hit it out of the park are slim.
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